ISLAMABAD: The International Crisis Group (ICG) says Pakistan is the worst-affected country by the Taliban’s 2021 takeover of Afghanistan, noting that even though a ceasefire holds for now, Islamabad is likely to strike again if militant violence persists.
The Brussels-based independent and non-profit think tank, founded by prominent statesmen, says in a new report that relations between the two countries have tanked, mainly because of the Afghan Taliban’s refusal to crack down on the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
Since 2022, violence in Pakistan has spiralled. In 2025 alone, militants killed more than 600 Pakistani soldiers and police, mostly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, the two provinces bordering Afghanistan.
Islamabad blames the banned TTP for these attacks, along with Baloch insurgent groups, which it believes with evidence, are backed by arch-rival India.
Brussels-based think tank says Islamabad may strike Afghanistan again if militant attacks continue
“UN monitors assert that the TTP enjoys Taliban support, but the Taliban publicly deny that Pakistani militants are even in Afghanistan and say Islamabad provoked what they paint as homegrown violence,” according to the report.
On its western flank, after 11 Pakistani military personnel were martyred in a TTP attack on Oct 8, Islamabad conducted cross-border airstrikes, including its first-ever strike on Kabul, ostensibly targeting TTP chief Noor Wali Mehsud.
Afghanistan retaliated with attacks on Pakistani military installations. Continued fighting claimed military and civilian lives on both sides.
The report cautions that Islamabad is likely to lash out again if it traces another strike back to Afghanistan.
The Taliban regime is badly outgunned, but its retaliation could still be lethal. Kabul claims to have missiles that can reach Pakistani cities, the use of which would likely provoke an even stronger Pakistani response.
South Asia
In South Asia, however, Islamabad’s foreign relations are far more fraught. After short wars in 2025 with both Afghanistan and India, another major attack by militants could upend the precarious calm that prevails between Pakistan and its two neighbours.
The report lists 10 conflicts to watch in 2026: Afghanistan-Pakistan, Myanmar, Israel and the United States versus Iran, Israel-Palestine, Syria, Ukraine, Mali and Burkina Faso, Ethiopia-Eritrea, Sudan, and Venezuela.
