Unlike the common perception, the suspension of bilateral trade between Islamabad and Kabul for nearly two-and-a-half months has hit Afghanistan far harder than Pakistan, with export losses running several times higher for Kabul, calling attention to the uneven economic toll of the prolonged disruption.
Pakistan–Afghanistan relations have deteriorated amid tensions over the banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), with Islamabad pressing Kabul to curb cross-border terrorism. After border clashes on October 11, a temporary ceasefire followed talks in Doha and later in Istanbul, but successive rounds of negotiations failed to produce a workable solution despite mediation by Turkiye and Qatar.
Pakistan declared the talks effectively over on November 7 after big differences persisted, after which Afghanistan suspended trade ties, while Pakistan had already closed its border following the clashes.
Trade data shows that the export losses for Afghanistan have reached around 10 per cent since October 10, 2025, compared with about 0.6pc for Pakistan due to the suspension of bilateral trade, placing Kabul at a clear disadvantage as the prolonged disruption continues to weigh more heavily on the Afghan economy.
Nearly 46pc of Afghanistan’s total exports are destined for Pakistan, including a sizable volume routed onward to India via the Wagah border, whereas Afghanistan accounts for only around 3.46pc of Pakistan’s global exports, according to trade data. This assessment does not include transit trade, which represents about 40pc of Afghanistan’s total imports, a factor that further places Kabul in a disadvantaged position.
India has emerged as Kabul’s second-largest export destination, accounting for around 40pc of Afghanistan’s total exports, despite being a non-bordering country. By contrast, exports to Afghanistan’s other three neighbours remain marginal, standing at 1.94pc for Iran, 3.14pc for Uzbekistan, and just 0.37pc for Tajikistan.
This pattern highlights the heavy concentration of Afghanistan’s export markets in Pakistan and India, and the critical role of the Wagah border for Afghan exports routed onward to the Indian market.
Kabul may divert a portion of its remaining imports to Central Asian states, Iran, and India, but it would struggle to find alternative markets for selling its fruits and vegetables, which accounted for 71pc of total exports in 2024, according to the World Bank estimates.
This raises a critical question as to why the Taliban appear willing to disrupt supply chains that are likely to inflict significant damage on an already struggling Afghan economy. A related question confronts Islamabad as well: how Pakistan plans to manage the loss of a market exceeding $1 billion, even though Afghanistan’s share in Pakistan’s overall exports remains relatively small.
As social media activists trade hostile rhetoric across the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, little attention is being paid to the economic fallout of a prolonged trade disruption. Extended border closures risk triggering job losses on both sides, while setbacks to agricultural trade are likely to deepen poverty in Afghanistan, where livelihoods remain heavily dependent on cross-border commerce.
Pakistan’s trade engagement with Afghanistan operates across several channels, comprising bilateral exports and imports, the use of its land routes and seaports for Afghan transit cargo, and the onward movement of Afghan exports to India through the Wagah border.
